Open Access Open Access  Restricted Access Subscription Access
Open Access Open Access Open Access  Restricted Access Restricted Access Subscription Access

Causal Relationship Between Trade & Economic Growth in India During Post WTO Period


Affiliations
1 Department of Economics, Avinashilingam Institute for Home Science, Coimbatore - 641043, India
     

   Subscribe/Renew Journal


This paper investigates in to the impact of WTO on the causal relationship among exports, imports and economic growth between1995 and 2016. The study used Granger Causality test to know the short run relationship between the variables and Johansen Co-integration approach for long run relationship. Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test was applied to check stationarity of the variables used in the study. The variables were stationary at first and second level difference level. There was sufficient evidence that there existed long run relationship between export and economic growth and also between import and economic growth. The results provide evidence that economic growth in India was propelled by a growth led import strategy as well as export led growth.
Subscription Login to verify subscription
User
Notifications
Font Size


  • Abou-Stait, F. (2005), “Are Exports the Engine of Economic Growth? An Application of Co-integration and Causality Analysis for Egypt 1997-2003”, African Development Bank Economic Research Working Paper Series No 76.
  • Abu Al-Foul, B. (2004), “Testing the Export-led Growth Hypothesis: Evidence from Jordan”, Applied Economics Letters, No. 11: 393-96.
  • Achchuthan, S. (2013), “Export, Import and Economic Growth: Evidence from Sri Lanka”, Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, 4(9):147-55.
  • Afaf, Abdull J. Saaed & Majeed, Ali Hussain (2015), “Impact of Exports and Imports on Economic Growth: Evidence from Tunisia”, Journal of Emerging Trends in Economics and Management Sciences(JETEMS),6 (1):13-21.
  • Deepika Kumari & Neena Malhotra (2014), “ExportLed Growth in India: Co-integration and Causality Analysis”, Journal of Economics and Development Studies, 2(2): 297-310.
  • Gurmeet Singh (2015), “Causality between Exports and Economic Growth: A Case Study of India”, Indian Journal of Accounting, XIVII (1):2015: 109-19.http://www.wto.org/
  • Hussain, M. (2014), “Export and GDP in Pakistan: Evidence from Causality and Co-integration Analysis”, International Journal of Management Cases (IJMC), 16 (1):37-47.
  • Hussain, M. & Saaed, Afaf (2014), “Relationship between Exports, Imports, and Economic Growth in Saudi Arabia”, Journal of Emerging Trends in Economics and Management Sciences (JETEMS), 5(3):364-70.
  • Johansen, S. & Juselius, K. (1990), “Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration– with Applications to the Demand for Money,” Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52 (2): 169–210.
  • Johansen, S. (1988), “Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors,” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12 (2–3): 231–54.
  • Kalaitzi, A. (2013), “Exports and Economic Growth in the United Arab Emirates RIBM Doctoral Symposium”, Manchester Metropolitan University Business School.
  • Micheal Benarroce & Manish Pandey (2017), “The Impacts of Imports and Exports on the Size and Composition of Government Expenditure”, International Journal of Economics and Finance”, 9(3):57-68.
  • Muhammad Tahir, Humayun Khan, Muhammad Israr &Abdul Qahar (2015), “An Analysis of Export Led Growth Hypothesis: Co-integration and Causality Evidence from SriLanka”, Advances in Economics and Business, 3(2):62-69.
  • Nazife Ozge Kilic & Murat Beser (2017), “Relationship of Foreign Trade and Economic Growth in Eurasian Economy: Panel Data Analysis”, International Journal of Economics and Finance, 9(9): 1-7.
  • Osterwald-Lenum, M. (1992), “A Note with Fractiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Co-integration Rank Test Statistics: Four Cases”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 54: 461-72.
  • Ruba Abu Shihab, Thikraiat Soufan & Shatha Abdul-Khaliq (2014), “The Causal Relationship between Exports and Economic Growth in Jordan”, Journal of Management and Business Research: B Economics and Commerce, 14(3):17-22.
  • Rubina Vohra (2001), “Export and Economic Growth: Further Time Series Evidence from Less-developed Countries”, International Advances in Economics Research 7(3):34550.
  • Sachin N. Mehta (2015), “The Dynamics of Relationship between Exports, Imports and Economic Growth in India”, International Journal of Research in Humanities & Soc. Sciences, 3 (7):39-47
  • Sampathkumar. T, & Rajeshkumar. S (2016), “Causal Relationship between Exports and Economic Growth: Evidence from SAARC Countries”, IOSR Journal of Economics and Finance (IOSR-JEF), 7(3):32-39.
  • Ullah, Zaman, Farooq & Javid (2009), “Co-integration and Causality between Exports and Economic Growth in Pakistan”, European Journal of Social Sciences, 10 (2):264-72.
  • Vijayasri, G. V. (2013),” The Importance of International Trade in the World”, International Journal of Marketing, Financial Services & Management Research, 2(9): 1-9.
  • Yaya Keho (2017), “The Impact of Trade Openness on Economic Growth: The Case of Cote d’Ivoire”, Cognet Economics and Finance, Research article, https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2017.1332820, 5:1-14

Abstract Views: 296

PDF Views: 1




  • Causal Relationship Between Trade & Economic Growth in India During Post WTO Period

Abstract Views: 296  |  PDF Views: 1

Authors

N. M. Varshini
Department of Economics, Avinashilingam Institute for Home Science, Coimbatore - 641043, India
M. Manonmani
Department of Economics, Avinashilingam Institute for Home Science, Coimbatore - 641043, India

Abstract


This paper investigates in to the impact of WTO on the causal relationship among exports, imports and economic growth between1995 and 2016. The study used Granger Causality test to know the short run relationship between the variables and Johansen Co-integration approach for long run relationship. Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test was applied to check stationarity of the variables used in the study. The variables were stationary at first and second level difference level. There was sufficient evidence that there existed long run relationship between export and economic growth and also between import and economic growth. The results provide evidence that economic growth in India was propelled by a growth led import strategy as well as export led growth.

References