Scenario Making for the Dimensions Macro Environment based on Fuzzy Delphi Method (Case Study: Assembly Companies in the Power Industry)

Background/Objectives: The main purpose of this study is scenario planning for the macro environment of four assembly companies in power industry. Methods/Statistical analysis: In This research, to predict the dimensions of macro environment of the above four assembler companies, we used the scenario planning and PEST analysis. One of the necessities of this investigation is recognition of the environment about the industry which affects indirectly on industry and creates opportunities and threats for industry sectors. Results: In this study, at first we recognized the critical uncertainties using the Fuzzy Delphi Method. Then, by using the above results, we obtained the final scenarios which cover the major part of the future. The results show five scenarios formed using four critical uncertainties, the stability of government, the nuclear issue, monetary and exchange rate. Due to the experts opinions, in attention to the conditions prevailing in the country and agreements made, there is not any significant change in next three years and key uncertainties will continue as usual. Therefore, the third scenario as the most likely scenario is chosen. Conclusion/Application: The applied method in this article can be used to provide the necessary strategy for different companies and industries and introduce investment orientations for the intended industries.