Effect of Population Pressures on Timber Needs

The paper traces the history and describes the features (a) of population progress, (b) of timber production and (c) of timber consumption trends. While reliable census data are scarcely available prior to the eighteenth century, even subsequent information regarding population statistics is very variable. However, Bennet's estimates are adopted, to indicate, how the world's population increased steadily but at a low rate till 1650 (the beginning of the Industrial Revolution in Europe), and at an accelerated pace thereafter. In the last half century since 1900 as many persons were added to the world's population as in the previous nine centuries together! As things are at present, the world population will continue to increase at a high annual rate in the future also. The impact of man on forests began with his need to clear forests for habitation and agriculture, and his requirements for wood for fuel and timber for various uses. Production of and trade in timber began with community living. The advent of steel and new sources of power enabled timber to be cut and fashioned variously. Timber transport and marketing, for internal as well as external trade, have also responded to the improvements in communications and modes of transport. Wood production has thus been correlated to the resources, population and economic progress of each region. Current production though considerable and adequate for meeting current needs, includes a significant proportion of unrecorded production. With economic progress, this will tend to diminish (as most of it is derived from unregulated working of private forests) and greater dependence will have to be placed on recorded production only. In fact, this feature would be a measure of advancement of a country. All the same, timber production has progressed all the time towards making this essential raw material available to mankind in ever-increasing quantities, in greater diversity of form and in a variety of species. The timber supply position is intimately connected with the extent of forests. With progress in other human activities such as agriculture, the forests area has diminished in many countries to very low levels. In advanced countries, as a result of efforts over centuries, a balance between forest land and land for other uses may have been attained; but, forests still continue to lose ground in developing and backward countries. While early use of wood was probably mainly for fuel, increased use of fashioned wood and processed wood characterises every stage of human progress. The availability of and technical possibility of using substitutes (steel, cement etc.) could also influence the use of timber to a considerable extent. With economic progress, consumption of wood for fuel decreased rapidly; wood for constructional purposes is also tending to take a secondary place (at least in urban areas), but the use of wood in pulp, board and other industries has risen steeply in recent years. The lowering of firewood consumption in spite of increasing population can be attributed to the increased use of substitute fuels (oil, gas, electricity) and the ready utilisation of the wood thus released, in industry. In advanced countries, fuel-wood represents only 10-20% of all wood used; in less advanced countries it would be an equal quantity as other woods; but in areas with a predominantly rural economy, it may be even ten-fold. In a developing economy, population increases, as also the per capita consumption of timber. But under more advanced conditions, while there may be an over-all increase in wood consumption, the per capita use of wood tends to get reduced largely due to difficulties in finding of wood supplies and ready availa-bility of substitutes for many uses. In advanced countries like those of Europe, wood is in fact losing ground. The effect of population pressures on timber needs may be summarised:- 1. In the very early stages, population increases induce development of forest resources and has a beneficial effect on forests and forestry. 2. The effect of further population increases on timber needs may be graded under three groups: (i) advanced countries with an industrial economy and a rural population of only 15 to 40% of total population; (ii) less advanced countries with a semi-industrial economy and a rural population of 40 to 70% of total population; and (iii) countries with a predominantly rural economy. 3. Further increases of population lead to increased timber needs (a) directly in proportion to the increase in the number of persons and (b) as a result of economic progress and the consequent improved standards and conditions of living. 4. This could lead to demands for timber far in excess of resources, but for (a) adjustment by way of using substitutes for fuel as well as for other uses, (b) reallocation for different uses, e.g., considerable reduction in use as fuelwood and consequent release for industrial uses and (c) diminution in per capita consumption. 5. Modern trends in timber utilisation tend to replace solid wood by veneers and plywood, large dimension timber by small dimension stock, and timber by cellulose. In other words the trend is towards maximum utilisation and almost total avoidance of waste. The world's requirement of wood will, however, continue to increase because of the great upsurge in population and vast technical advances. 6. Pegging down population at any desired level is a human problem beset with numerous difficulties. In practice, measures to increase the output of the world's forests may be more readily adopted. Such measures would, however, call for changes in forest management and policy. Attention is first drawn to Paterson's approach for the assessment of potential productivity. He computes the gross increment (total annual possibility) now realised at only 54% of the potential productivity of the world's forests. Even in Germany (with its centuries of well-regulated forestry), 'hidden' resources are still being located. In a developing country like India, it is estimated that even if 1 % of the existing forests were to be developed to full productivity, the present annual output could be doubled. Even otherwise, improvements in existing measures could themselves help to increase forest yields considerably. Among short term measures are listed (i) exploitation of hitherto inaccessible forests (46% of total forest area); (ii) improved implementation of silvicultural operations (to avoid loss by damage from fire, insects etc; to effect thinnings and realise intermediate yields as silviculturally indicated; to adopt shorter rotations, consistent with changed nature of demand, etc.); (iii) undertaking fresh inventories, to lead to increased 'annual cut'; (iv) increased use of less known species (especially in view of the industrial need nowadays more for wood and cellulose than for quality timber); (v) improved forest and timber utilisation (to avoid waste in conversion and loss in transport; to develop new uses such as for plywood, pulp and boards instead of conventional uses for construction etc.); and (vi) reduction in fuelwood consumption (so as to release increased quantities for industrial uses). Long term measures emphasise in particular the role of fast grown exotics in increasing the forest potential. The paper concludes on the optimistic note that the world's population pressures can be adequately and squarely borne by its forests, provided a fresh orientation is given to forestry practices and a dynamic approach is adopted in order to secure (as completely as possible) the potential productivity of the forests and meanwhile, to realise the fullest permissible returns.