Journal of Business Thought

Aparna Sajeev ¹, Harpreet Kaur ², Simrit Kaur ³

Affiliations
1 Senior Research Scholar, Faculty of Management Studies, University of Delhi, Delhi, IN
2 Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Sri Guru Gobind Singh College of Commerce, University of Delhi, Delhi, IN
3 Professor of Public Policy, Faculty of Management Studies, University of Delhi, Delhi, IN

Abstract

What's fuelling the food prices? While several reasons abound, the role of fuel prices in fuelling food prices cannot be negated. Evidence suggests that there is an increasing co-movement between world oil prices and agricultural commodity prices, with rising demand for bio-fuels also impacting the relationship. This has reinstated the interest in determining the price transmission from world crude oil prices to that of agricultural commodities. In this context, the present study analyzes the fuel-food price relationship in the Indian context. In addition to food and fuel prices, both domestic and international, two macro-economic variables, viz., inflation and real effective exchange rates have been analyzed. Using monthly time series data over the period April 1994 to December 2014, the long -and short term interactions between the variables have been estimated using Toda-Yamamoto causality and Johansen cointegration tests. Additionally, using VAR estimates, the impulse response functions have been generated and analyzed. A specific highlight of the present paper is the analysis based on forecast error variance decomposition.
Analysis based on impulse response functions indicates that international cereals price, and fuel prices-both domestic and international, in general, have a positive impact on domestic cereal prices. Based on variance decomposition of domestic cereal prices, the findings indicate that shocks to fuel prices- both domestic and international, have a negligible impact on domestic food prices over ten months period. In view of India's mandate on bio-fuel policy, as also the recent deregulation of fuel prices, the associated impact on food prices cannot be overlooked. The paper concludes with a broad policy perspective.

Keywords

Agricultural Commodity Prices, Oil Prices, Time Series, Causality, Impulse Response Functions, Forecast Error Variance Decomposition, India

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Harpreet Kaur , Simrit Kaur

Abstract

in the world. Increased occurrence of temperature extremes, increase in the number of warm days and nights, altered rainfall patterns, increased frequency of deficit monsoons and heavy precipitation events have been observed in the country. Further, these trends are projected to continue. In this context, the study discusses the climate change trends and their impact on agriculture and food security in the country. The empirical analysis using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Instrumental Variables ((IV) regressions shows that climate especially temperatures adversely impact both agriculture and food security. The importance of promotion of appropriate strategies to address agricultural productivity especially enhanced irrigation facilities, infrastructure and adoption of direct interventionist measures addressing food insecurity in the country is underlined by the research article.

Keywords

Agricultural Investments, Agricultural Productivity, Climate Change, Food Security, Infrastructure, Irrigation

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Harpreet Kaur ¹

Affiliations
1 Department of Economics, Sri Guru Gobind Singh College of Commerce, University of Delhi, New Delhi-110034, IN

Abstract

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), the successors of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) have ensured a renewed commitment to end hunger and global poverty by 2030. Specifically, the second SDG, calls for measures “To end hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition, and promote sustainable agriculture”. Food security as a concept is complex and has evolved overtime moving away from a strong focus on food availability to a multifaceted approach that also takes into account food accessibility, food utilisation and food stability. The complexities of achieving food security have increased due to the convoluted interplay of changing demographics and consumption patterns, climate change, impact of economic growth and trade at the national and international level.

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