International Research Journal of Agricultural Economics and Statistics

Open Access Open Access  Restricted Access Subscription Access
Open Access Open Access Open Access  Restricted Access Restricted Access Subscription Access

Forecasting of Green Chilli Prices in West Bengal by Holt-Winters Method Using Expert System


Affiliations
1 Darjeeling Krishi Vigyan Kendra (UBKV), Kalimpong (W.B.), India
2 Palli Siksha Bhavana, Visva-Bharati University, Santiniketan (W.B.), India
3 Darjeeling Krishi Vigyan Kendra (U.B.K.V.) Kalimpong (W.B.), India
     

   Subscribe/Renew Journal


The present study was conducted to access the market trend of green chilli in West Bengal using user friendly expert-system. Windows operating system and MS Office package is required to run the system. Triple exponential smoothing (Holt-Winters method) has been applied for forecasting the monthly price of chilli. To measures the accuracy, mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), mean absolute error (MAE) and mean square error (MSE) at different levels of smoothing constants such as α, β and γ have been used for the model selection criteria that can describe the trend the price of green chilli during January 2010 and March 2017. Price of green chilli from April 2016 to March 2017 was considered for model validation. Price forecasts of green chilli from April 2017 to March 2018 were found to be in between Rs.16/kg to Rs. 58/kg highest price forecast during Sept. 2017 and lowest during May, 2017. Upper control limit and lower control limit along with forecast value has given an narrow range of forcast that proves its accuracy in forcasting.

Keywords

Green Chilli Price, Forecasting, Holt-Winters Method, Expert-System.
Subscription Login to verify subscription
User
Notifications
Font Size


  • Bermudez, J.D., Segura, J.V. and Vercheri, E. (2010). Bayesian forecasting with the Holt–Winters model, J. Operational Research Society. 61:164 -171.

  • Chakrapani, R. and Kannaiah, P. (2012). A study on forecasting predicting commodity prices of gold movements with use of Holt-Winter Model, Trend Smoothing Method at Hydrabad Stock Exchange. IRACST- Internat. J. Res. Mgmt. & Technol., 2(2):131-139.

  • Chatfield, C. (2013). The analysis of time series: Theory and Practice, Springer Publisher, pp. 263.

  • Dhakre, D.S., Sarkar, K.A. and Manna, S. (2016) Forecast price of brinjal by holt Winters method in West Bengal using MS Excel. Internat. J. Bio-Resource, Environ. & Agric. Sci., 2(1): 232-236.

  • Gelper, S., Fried, R. and Croux, C. (2010). Robust forecasting with exponential and Holt-Winters smoothing, J. Forecasting, 29: 285-300.

  • Holt, C.C. (1957). Forecasting trends and seasonals by exponentially weighted averages, Carnegie Institute of Technology, Pittsburgh ONR memorandum no. 52.

  • Ishaque, M. and Ziblim, S.D. (2013). Use of some exponential smoothing models in forecasting some food crop prices in the upper east region of Ghana, Mathematical Theory &Modeling, 3 (7) : 16-27, www.iiste.org.

  • Ramya Lakshmi, S.B. and Bhavani Devi, I. (2017). Time series analysis of chilli (dry) prices in selected markets of India. Internat. Res. J. Agric. Eco. & Stat., 8(2):271-276, DOI : 10.15740/HAS/ IRJAES/8.2/271-276.

  • Winters, P.R.(1960). Forecasting sales by exponentially weighted moving averages. Mgmt. Sci., 6 (3): 324–342. doi:10.1287/mnsc.6.3.324.

  • AGMARK (2017). Commodity, Green Chilli, West Bengal, Accessed on April 2017 from http://agmarknet.dac.gov.in.


Abstract Views: 165

PDF Views: 0




  • Forecasting of Green Chilli Prices in West Bengal by Holt-Winters Method Using Expert System

Abstract Views: 165  |  PDF Views: 0

Authors

Subrata Manna
Darjeeling Krishi Vigyan Kendra (UBKV), Kalimpong (W.B.), India
D. S. Dhakre
Palli Siksha Bhavana, Visva-Bharati University, Santiniketan (W.B.), India
Rakesh Roy
Darjeeling Krishi Vigyan Kendra (U.B.K.V.) Kalimpong (W.B.), India

Abstract


The present study was conducted to access the market trend of green chilli in West Bengal using user friendly expert-system. Windows operating system and MS Office package is required to run the system. Triple exponential smoothing (Holt-Winters method) has been applied for forecasting the monthly price of chilli. To measures the accuracy, mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), mean absolute error (MAE) and mean square error (MSE) at different levels of smoothing constants such as α, β and γ have been used for the model selection criteria that can describe the trend the price of green chilli during January 2010 and March 2017. Price of green chilli from April 2016 to March 2017 was considered for model validation. Price forecasts of green chilli from April 2017 to March 2018 were found to be in between Rs.16/kg to Rs. 58/kg highest price forecast during Sept. 2017 and lowest during May, 2017. Upper control limit and lower control limit along with forecast value has given an narrow range of forcast that proves its accuracy in forcasting.

Keywords


Green Chilli Price, Forecasting, Holt-Winters Method, Expert-System.

References