The Spatio-Temporal Trajectory of Covid-19 in India: Insight into Past Pandemics and Future Recommendations

Pandemics have a high socio-economic impact on countries. Singapore and Taiwan, which had pandemic strategies in place, fared much better than almost all other countries in the world during the recent COVID-19 pandemic. In a massive country like India, the coronavirus (COVID-19) has infected millions of people. While studies have estimated the rate of transmission and vulnerability zones, there is still a pressing need to understand the spatio-temporal progression of various pandemics across the population. Here, we review the spread of pandemics in India and identify states with a high probability of being initial hotspots. It was found that pandemics tend to follow a similar transmission route in India. For the COVID-19 pandemic, a spatial link has been established between seasons and disease progression. For instance, districts are marked where a sudden increase in cases (as high as 800%) was observed during monsoon (i.e. rainy season). Following the spatio-temporal trajectory of COVID-19 in India, we found that in post-monsoon, northern regions with hilly terrain witnessed the highest increase in the number of cases. Identifying areas on the trajectory of pandemics will help us better prepare for an outbreak more effectively in the future.