Forecasting Sector-wise Electricity Consumption for India Using Various Regression Models

Electricity is an important and one of the most dominant energy sources used in the world. It governs a major share in the Indian as well as world economy. Thus, forecasting its consumption can be useful in better planning of its future production and supply. In the present study, electricity consumption in seven different sectors, namely industry, domestic, agriculture, commercial, traction and railways, others along with total electricity consumed is forecasted using regression analysis. The study uses four regression modelling approaches to forecast electricity consumption by sectors in India. These are linear, logarithmic, power and exponential regression models. The accuracy of the models is tested using R₂ (coefficient of determination) and MAPE (mean absolute percentage error) values. The model having the highest R₂ and lowest MAPE value is selected for better accuracy results. The result/forecast is then compared with the available data published by the Central Electricity Authority, Government of India.