Current Science

Open Access Open Access  Restricted Access Subscription Access

Projections of Extreme Precipitation Events under Climate Change Scenarios in Mahaweli River Basin of Sri Lanka


Affiliations
1 Department of Civil and Infrastructure Engineering, School of Engineering and Technology, Asian Institute of Technology, Pathum Thani 12120, Thailand
2 Department of Food, Agriculture and Bioresources, School of Environment Resources and Development, Asian Institute of Technology, Pathum Thani 12120, Thailand
 

The future changes in rainfall pattern in the Mahaweli River Basin of Sri Lanka using three general circulation models under two representative concentration pathways were assessed. The projections showed that consecutive dry days will decrease, consecutive wet days and annual total precipitation in wet days will increase, the monthly maximum consecutive five-day precipitation will generally decrease, and annual rainfall will increase except for the first inter-monsoon. The projections of the heavy rainfall varied according to the time periods and climate zones. The present results can help policy makers to optimize the use of water resources considering future climate change.

Keywords

Bias Correction, Climate Change, Extreme Precipitation, GCMs, Rainfall, RCPs.
User
Notifications
Font Size

  • Murray, S. J., Foster, P. N. and Prentice, I. C., Future global water resources with respect to climate change and water withdrawals as estimated by a dynamic global vegetation model. J. Hydrol., 2012, 448, 14–29.

  • Hijioka, Y. et al., Asia. In Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part B: Regional Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds Barros, V. R. et al.), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, USA, 2014, pp. 1327–1370.

  • Sun, W., Mu, X., Song, X., Wu, D., Cheng, A. and Qiu, B., Changes in extreme temperature and precipitation events in the Loess Plateau (China) during 1960–2013 under global warming. Atmos. Res., 2016, 168, 33–48.

  • IPCC, Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds Field, C. B. et al.), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, USA, 2012, p. 582.

  • IPCC, Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report Summary for the Policy Makers, 2014.

  • Rashid, M. M., Beecham, S. and Chowdhury, R. K., Statistical downscaling of CMIP5 outputs for projecting future changes in rainfall in the Onkaparinga catchment. Sci. Total Environ., 2015, 530, 171–182.

  • Baba, N., Sinking the Pearl of the Indian Ocean: Climate Change in Sri Lanka. Global Majority E-Journal, 2010, 1(1), 4–16.

  • World Bank, Turn Down the Heat: Climate Extremes, Regional Impacts, and the Case for Resilience. A report for the World Bank by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Climate Analytics. Washington, DC, World Bank, 2013.

  • Eriyagama, N. and Smakhtin, V., Observed and projected climatic changes, their impacts and adaptation options for Sri Lanka: a review. In Proceedings of the National Conference on Water, Food Security and Climate Change in Sri Lanka, 2010, 2, 99–117.

  • Jayatillake, H. M., Chandrapala, L., Basnayake, B. R. S. B. and Dharmaratne, G. H. P., Water Resources and Climate Change. In Proceedings of Workshop on Sri Lanka National Water Development Report (eds Wijesekera, N. T. S., Imbulana, K. A. U. S. and Neupane, B.), World Water Assessment Programme: Paris, France, 2005.

  • Jayawardene, H. K. W. I., Sonnadara, D. U. J. and Jayewardene, D. R., Trends of rainfall in Sri Lanka over the last century. Sri Lankan J. Phys., 2005, 6, 7–17.

  • Wickramagamage, P., Spatial and temporal variation of rainfall trends of Sri Lanka. Theor. Appl. Climatol., 2016, 125, 427–438.

  • Mahaweli Consultancy Bureau, Environmental Impact Assessment. SRI: Water Resources Development Investment Program, Upper Elehara Canal (UEC), Prepared by Mahaweli Consultancy Bureau (Pvt) Ltd for the Asian Development Bank. MCB, 2014; http://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/project-document/153180/47381-001-eia-01.pdf.

  • Withanachchi, S. S., Kopke, S., Withanachchi, C. R., Pathiranage, R. and Ploeger, A., Water resource management in dry zonal paddy cultivation in Mahaweli River Basin, Sri Lanka: an analysis of spatial and temporal climate change impacts and traditional knowledge. Climate, 2014, 2, 329–354.

  • Shantha, W. W. A. and Jayasundara, J. M. S. B., Study on changes of rainfall in the Mahaweli upper watershed in Sri Lanka due to climatic changes and develop a correction model for global warming. In International Symposium on the Stabilization of Greenhouse Gas Concentrations. Hadley Centre, Met Office, Exeter, UK, 2005.

  • Punyawardena, B., Climate Change: Challenges and Opportunities in Sri Lanka Natural Resources Management Center, Department of Agriculture, Sri Lanka, 2002.

  • Manchanayake, P. and Madduma Bandara, C. M., Water Resources of Sri Lanka. National Science Foundation, Sri Lanka, 1999.

  • Mahaweli Authority of Sri Lanka (MASL), Mahaweli Hand Book 2011–2012. Statistical Hand Book, Planning and Monitoring Unit, Mahaweli Authority of Sri Lanka, 2012; http://mahaweli.gov.lk/en/pdf/CorporateDocuments/statistics/2012.pdf.

  • Department of Census and Statistics Sri Lanka. Census of Population and Housing – Final Report, Department of Census and Statistics Sri Lanka, 2012.

  • Arguez, A. and Vose, R. S., The definition of the standard WMO climate normal: the key to deriving alternative climate normals. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 2011, 92, 699–704.

  • De Silva, R. P., Spatiotemporal hydrological modelling with GIS for the Upper Mahaweli catchment, Sri Lanka. Cranfield: Cranfield University, 1997.

  • Eischeid, J. K., Pasteris, P. A., Diaz, H. F., Plantico, M. S. and Lott, N. J., Creating a serially complete, national daily time series of temperature and precipitation for the western United States. J. Appl. Meteorol., 2000, 39, 1580–1591.

  • Smith, J. B. and Hulme, M., Climate change scenarios. In UNEP Handbook on Methods for Climate Change Impact Assessment and Adaptation Studies. United Nations Environment Programme (eds Feenstra, J. et al.), Nairobi, Kenya and Institute for Environmental Studies, Amsterdam, 1998, pp. 3–1–3–40.

  • Van Vuuren, D. P. et al.., Stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations at low levels: an assessment of reduction strategies and costs. Clim. Change, 2007, 81, 119–159.

  • Thomson, A. M. et al., RCP4.5: a pathway for stabilization of radiative forcing by 2100. Clim. Change, 2010, 109, 77–94.

  • Fujino, J., Nair, R., Kainuma, M., Masui, T. and Matsuoka, Y., Multi-gas mitigation analysis on stabilization scenarios using AIM global model. Energy J. Special Issue, 2006, 3, 343–354.

  • Hijioka, Y., Matsuoka, Y., Nishimoto, H., Masui, T. and Kainuma, M., Global GHG emission scenarios under GHG concentration stabilization targets. J. Glob. Environ. Eng., 2008, 13, 97–108.

  • Riahi, K. et al., RCP 8.5–A scenario of comparatively high green-house gas emissions. Clim. Change, 2011, 109, 33–57.

  • Teutschbein, C. and Seibert, J., Bias correction of regional climate model simulations for hydrological climate-change impact studies: Review and evaluation of different methods. J. Hydrol., 2012, 456, 12–29.

  • Chen, J., Brissette, F., Chaumont, D. and Braun, M., Finding appropriate bias correction methods in downscaling precipitation for hydrologic impact studies over North America. Water Resour. Res., 2013, 49, 4187–4205.

  • Gudmundsson, L., Bremnes, J. B., Haugen, J. E. and EngenSkaugen, T., Technical note: downscaling RCM precipitation to the station scale using statistical transformations – a comparison of methods. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 2012, 16, 3383–3390.

  • Easterling, D. R., Alexander, L. V., Mokssit, A. and Detemmerman, V., CCI/CLIVAR workshop to develop priority climate indices. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 2003, 84, 1403–1407.

  • Flato, G. et al., Evaluation of climate models. In Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds Stocker, T. F. et al.), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2013.


Abstract Views: 274

PDF Views: 111




  • Projections of Extreme Precipitation Events under Climate Change Scenarios in Mahaweli River Basin of Sri Lanka

Abstract Views: 274  |  PDF Views: 111

Authors

Naditha Imbulana
Department of Civil and Infrastructure Engineering, School of Engineering and Technology, Asian Institute of Technology, Pathum Thani 12120, Thailand
Shakthi Gunawardana
Department of Civil and Infrastructure Engineering, School of Engineering and Technology, Asian Institute of Technology, Pathum Thani 12120, Thailand
Sangam Shrestha
Department of Civil and Infrastructure Engineering, School of Engineering and Technology, Asian Institute of Technology, Pathum Thani 12120, Thailand
Avishek Datta
Department of Food, Agriculture and Bioresources, School of Environment Resources and Development, Asian Institute of Technology, Pathum Thani 12120, Thailand

Abstract


The future changes in rainfall pattern in the Mahaweli River Basin of Sri Lanka using three general circulation models under two representative concentration pathways were assessed. The projections showed that consecutive dry days will decrease, consecutive wet days and annual total precipitation in wet days will increase, the monthly maximum consecutive five-day precipitation will generally decrease, and annual rainfall will increase except for the first inter-monsoon. The projections of the heavy rainfall varied according to the time periods and climate zones. The present results can help policy makers to optimize the use of water resources considering future climate change.

Keywords


Bias Correction, Climate Change, Extreme Precipitation, GCMs, Rainfall, RCPs.

References





DOI: https://doi.org/10.18520/cs%2Fv114%2Fi07%2F1495-1509