Artha Vijnana: Journal of The Gokhale Institute of Politics and Economics

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Tin Scarcity in India: Evidence from a Structural Time Series Approach


Affiliations
1 Department of Economics, JamiaMillia Islamia, New Delhi 110025, India
2 ICAR-National Institute of Agricultural Economics and Policy Research, DPS Marg, PUSA, New Delhi 110012, India
     

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The paper evaluates the Resource Scarcity Hypothesis in the case of tin, a strategic metal in the Indian economy, using data from 1958 till 2013. Estimation was carried out using the Structural Time Series Model. Results of model estimations identify a stochastic long term growth with significant cyclical movements. Compared to the large amplitude of the cycles, the growth rate of the long-term trend is small and punctuated by structural breaks. Our approach provides a flexible and reasonably accurate fitting procedure for quantifying the effects of separate structural components. On the whole, the model works well as a description of resource prices but does not support the resource scarcity hypothesis. Results of the present study can help in the formulation of an informed policy response to the problems associated with the growing demand fort in India.
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  • Tin Scarcity in India: Evidence from a Structural Time Series Approach

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Authors

M. S. Bhatt
Department of Economics, JamiaMillia Islamia, New Delhi 110025, India
Jaweriah Hazrana
ICAR-National Institute of Agricultural Economics and Policy Research, DPS Marg, PUSA, New Delhi 110012, India

Abstract


The paper evaluates the Resource Scarcity Hypothesis in the case of tin, a strategic metal in the Indian economy, using data from 1958 till 2013. Estimation was carried out using the Structural Time Series Model. Results of model estimations identify a stochastic long term growth with significant cyclical movements. Compared to the large amplitude of the cycles, the growth rate of the long-term trend is small and punctuated by structural breaks. Our approach provides a flexible and reasonably accurate fitting procedure for quantifying the effects of separate structural components. On the whole, the model works well as a description of resource prices but does not support the resource scarcity hypothesis. Results of the present study can help in the formulation of an informed policy response to the problems associated with the growing demand fort in India.

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.21648/arthavij%2F2020%2Fv62%2Fi2%2F196364