Nina Bani Hashemi ¹, Parviz Kardavani ¹

Affiliations
1 Natural Geography, Islamic Azad University, Tehran Science and Research Branch, Tehran, IR

Abstract

This study aims at simulating the impacts of climate change on Kurdistan rainfall using 3-dimensional models of the general circulation of the atmosphere. Using data from six synoptic stations and employing Lars model, this study was carried out. The results of the calculation of bias and absolute errors on the modeled parameters for all stations represent that the model's power in coverage of the variance of the parameters under study was considerably acceptable. The best rainfall simulation is observed at Sanandaj station with absolute error of 1.83 and the weakest was 8.22 at Marivan station. The average heavy rainfall in Kurdistan province is increasing for the upcoming climate period ranging from 0.1 day in central parts and north-east Kurdistan to 0.7 day in other parts. The highest rate of increase among the means of heavy rainfall can be observed at the west corner and Marivan station.

Keywords

Climate Change, Heavy Rainfall, Kurdistan Province, Lars Model.

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