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LARISA G. CHUVAKHINA, ¹, NIKOLAI A. MOLDENHAUER ², ANAHITA NASIRBEIK ³

Affiliations
1 Associate Professor of the Department of World Economy and International Business,, RU
2 Postgraduate student, Department of World Economy & International Business, Faculty of international economic relations, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, 49, Leningradsky avenue, RU
3 Postgraduate student, Department of World Economy & International Business, Faculty of international economic relations, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, 49, Leningradsky avenue, Moscow, RU

Abstract

The current petrodollar system has become a key factor in US economic power by creating external demand for US dollars and treasury bonds, which has allowed accumulation of the state debt without any change in actual credit solvency. The mechanism of this interaction is based on the conclusion of an agreement between the United States and Saudi Arabia, to which joined other OPEC countries subsequently. As a result, OPEC countries pledged to sell oil on the world market exclusively for US dollars. In exchange, the United States granted preferential loans and technology to petroleum exporting countries. An increase in oil production in the United States alongside growth in exports has neutralized US dependence on oil supplies from OPEC countries, resulting in the transformation of the petrodollar system and a shift in the balance of power in the world oil market. The US had no need to interact with OPEC countries, and the strengthening of sanctions imposed by Western countries against third countries has contributed to the establishment of a new balance of power in the oil market, through coordination between OPEC+ exporters. A key feature of the change in the position on the world oil market was the new status of the United States, turning from one of the leading oil importers to a world-class exporter. This situation led to a reorientation of OPEC to other markets and to competition with the United States for a share of the world oil market. As a response, the OPEC+ format was created, which led to an increased influence of exporting countries on the oil market, which is confirmed by the conclusions of the built mathematical model based on the analysis of correlation dependencies of dependent and independent variables used to construct regression equations. The dynamics of world oil market prices and the median values of OPEC countries’ currencies against the US dollar were selected as dependent variables. Variables that impact the formation of dependent values are the US dollar index, the level of oil production by OPEC countries and the interest rate on federal funds of the US Federal Reserve. The equations and correlation analysis were based on monthly data from January 2007 to October 2020. To assess the changed nature of the influence of OPEC countries on the global dynamics of oil prices, the time interval was divided into two intervals. The first selected time interval covers the period before the creation of the OPEC+ format: January 2007 - November 2016. Accordingly, the second selected time interval includes the duration of the OPEC+ agreement: December 2016-October 2020. To determine the effective influence of the considering variables on the results obtained at the initial stage, the correlation value was set within - 0.5 d” R e” 0.5, which allowed us to filter out variables with insignificant correlation. After obtaining the correlation dependencies, all pairs of dependent and independent variables were analyzed for approximating functions, which allowed us to study the nature of the dependence in more detail and more accurately construct the regression equations.

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LARISA G. CHUVAKHINA ¹, NIKOLAI A. MOLDENHAUER ², ANAHITA NASIRBEIK ²

Affiliations
1 PhD in Economics, Associate Professor, Department of World Economy, and International Business,
2 Department of World Economy & International Business, Faculty of International Economic Relations, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, 49, Leningradsky Avenue, Moscow,, RU

Abstract

The development of the energy sector in the United States of America (USA) represents a rivalry between two different approaches, which has intensified under the last three American administrations. The competition of approaches is expressed in the confrontation between supporters of energy based on renewable sources and supporters of traditional energy resources. A comparative analysis of changes in the energy sector, depending on the prevalence of a particular approach to energy development, shows that external conditions play a key role in promoting the energy strategy. The strategy of priority development of “green” energy carried out under Barack Obama could not be realized because of the shale boom. As a result, many companies working with renewable energy sources did not stand up to the competition. The opposite approach of Donald Trump’s focus on developing traditional energy resources to ensure US energy security and to increase jobs has been hit by the COVID-19 pandemic, which has virtually nullified the US administration’s efforts under this approach. The current concept of President J. Biden is aimed at continuing the strategy of Barack Obama for the development of “green” energy in the United States. Proponents of this concept hope for the possibility of its at least partial implementation in the absence of a shale boom. The lifting of the embargo on the export of American oil has led to an increase in oil supplies abroad. As of 2018, the United States has overtaken Saudi Arabia in terms of oil and gas exports, taking a leading position in the global oil market. In 2019-2020, the United States retained the first place in the world in oil production. This article examines the conceptual approaches of American administrations to the issue of energy policy and analyzes the statistical data that characterize the traditional and “clean energy” industries. An important factor is the degree of influence of the US energy policy on global oil prices. To analyze this issue, this research uses curved regression equations to assess the impact of US energy policy on world oil prices under the administrations of Barack Obama and Donald Trump. The results of the correlation show that a more effective interaction between the variables was carried out during the presidency of Barack Obama, when Exports of Crude Oil influenced the price dynamics of oil quotes with an inverse relationship. With the arrival of the Biden administration, the strategy started under Obama in favor of developing clean energy was continued. In the context of the spread of covid-19, the growth of crisis phenomena in the national economy, the growth of production costs in the oil and gas industry, and the fall in the world energy prices, the development of green energy can have a certain effect, given the Biden administration’s approach to energy development. The subsequent actions of the Biden administration may offset Trump’s efforts to develop traditional energy to strengthen the economic potential of the United States and strengthen the position of American companies in the global oil market.

Keywords

Renewable energy sources, traditional energy, oil and gas industry, CO2 emissions, export/import of energy resources, US Energy Policy.

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