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Artha Vijnana: Journal of The Gokhale Institute of Politics and Economics, Vol 32, No 3-4 (1990), Pagination: 223-255
Abstract
It is generally pointed out that the forecasting performance of the structural models of the exchange-rate determination is poorer than that of the native Random-walk models. Among the most influential of the empirical studies of exchange-rate forecasting models were those performed by Meese and Rogoff (1983 a, 1983 b, 1985) (M - R) who found that during the 1976-1984 period on structural or time-series technique could appreciably outperform the Random-walk at any forecasting horizon shorter than 12 months. The forecasts M - R construced were based on the actual future values of the exogenous variables.
