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Pai, D. S.
- Performance of the Operational and Experimental Long-Range Forecasts for the 2015 Southwest Monsoon Rainfall
Abstract Views :256 |
PDF Views:78
Authors
D. S. Pai
1,
A. Suryachandra Rao
2,
Soma Senroy
1,
Maheswar Pradhan
2,
Prasanth A. Pillai
2,
M. Rajeevan
3
Affiliations
1 India Meteorological Department, Shivajinagar, Pune 411 005, IN
2 Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Dr Homi Bhabha Road, Pashan, Pune 411 008, IN
3 Ministry of Earth Sciences, Prithvi Bhavan, Opp. India Habitat Centre, Lodhi Road, New Delhi 110 003, IN
1 India Meteorological Department, Shivajinagar, Pune 411 005, IN
2 Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Dr Homi Bhabha Road, Pashan, Pune 411 008, IN
3 Ministry of Earth Sciences, Prithvi Bhavan, Opp. India Habitat Centre, Lodhi Road, New Delhi 110 003, IN
Source
Current Science, Vol 112, No 01 (2017), Pagination: 68-75Abstract
India experienced deficient monsoon rainfall in 2015 that followed the deficient monsoon of 2014. India Meteorological Department (IMD) correctly predicted the large rainfall deficiency (86% of long period average) in 2015. Incidentally, this was the first ever deficient monsoon forecast issued by IMD, though it had earlier issued below-normal rainfall forecasts in the previous two deficient monsoon years (2009 and 2014) and was partially correct. The fact that there were only three previous occasions of consecutive two deficient monsoon years during the last 114 years (1901-2014) was itself a challenge to IMD to issue the forecast in 2015. It may be mentioned that IMD persisted with the deficient monsoon forecast for 2015, even though there were predictions from private agencies for a normal monsoon and apprehensions from the press and media about the low probability of two consecutive deficient years. IMD was also able to correctly predict the regional distribution of seasonal rainfall during the season. IMD's first deficient monsoon forecast was based on the state-of-the-art operational statistical forecasting system, which was introduced in 2007. IMD was further confident for a deficient monsoon due to the clear indications of a strong El Niño event by June itself. Forecasts from high-resolution coupled forecasting system (CFS) developed by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, under the Monsoon Mission also suggested a deficient monsoon in 2015. In this article we provide details of the operational forecasting models and verification of these forecasts. Brief description about the experimental CFS developed under the Monsoon Mission and CFS forecast for the 2015 southwest monsoon season is also presented.Keywords
AISMR Data, Long-Range Forecasts, IMD, Monsoon Rainfall.- Synoptic Situation Associated with the Heat Wave Condition during 17 May to 1 June 2015 Over India
Abstract Views :235 |
PDF Views:96
Authors
Affiliations
1 India Meteorological Department, Pune 411 005, IN
1 India Meteorological Department, Pune 411 005, IN
Source
Current Science, Vol 112, No 02 (2017), Pagination: 364-369Abstract
Heat wave conditions from 17 May to 1 June 2015 caused deaths of over 2000 people, especially in the south Indian states of Andhra Pradesh and neighbouring Telangana. This study comprises the analysis of synoptic features associated with this deadly heat wave. It was found that the presence of large amplitude anticyclonic flow in the upper levels, above normal 500 hPa height values, above normal lower tropospheric temperatures, below normal precipitable water and higher outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) values are major factors associated with the occurrences of heat wave.Keywords
Air Temperature, Heat Waves, Geopotential Height, Precipitable Water.- Impact of Climate Change on The Heavy Rainfall Events During June to September Over Kerala (1901–2019)
Abstract Views :220 |
PDF Views:77
Authors
Affiliations
1 Climate Research and Services, India Meteorological Department, Pune 411 005, IN
1 Climate Research and Services, India Meteorological Department, Pune 411 005, IN