Abstract

Background/Objectives: In official statistics, seasonal adjustment technique is usually employed to explore the seasonality characteristic of a time series. This paper attempts to analyse the seasonality characteristics of Consumer Price Index Numbers for Industrial Workers (CPI-IW base 2001=100). This is commonly used for calculation of inflation and dearness allowance fixation of government employees as well as industrial workers all around the country.

Method/Statistical Analysis: United States’ Bureau of the Census developed a model called X-12 ARIMA intended to explore seasonality of a time series. This econometric model helps the economist to determine the presence and strength of seasonality of a time series.

Findings: The results of X-12 ARIMA indicate that the Consumer Price Index Numbers for Industrial Workers (CPI-IW base 2001=100) contains identifiable seasonality, whereas the series have no indication of substantial moving seasonality.

Improvement/ Applications: To study the underlying trends of the time series, one can make use of the model’s output such as seasonally adjusted series, trend cycle, etc. to explore the underlying developments in the economy in a different perspective. Another scope of this study is to explore the monthly growth rate of original series as well as component series. Hence, enable one to study and understand short span of series, detect change in trend, etc.

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Abstract

Objectives: Tea workers in India are plagued with the problem of poor wages which resulted in poor living and working conditions. The tea plantation workers and their families of North East are brewing starvation and related deaths. This study offers an evidence based analysis pertaining to wages in tea plantation in India.

Methods/Analysis: Wages of workers mostly dependent on various factors such as cost of living, industrial/geographical competitiveness, profit, etc. In order to study the level and movement of wages in tea plantation industry and wage difference between north India and south India, various statistical techniques such as averages, percentage changes, graphical techniques, correlation, Linear Regression model (wage elasticity) etc. are used to explore the results.

Findings: This study found that among the plantation sector, tea workers are paid the lowest especially in north-east region. The unfair wage pattern, lack of interest from management, lack of implementation of laws by the state governments and also lack of effective monitoring by union government have driven workers into absolute penury. Crisis in Indian tea industry due to stiff competition, increase cost of production, decrease in tea price and consequent closing down of several tea plantations by reason of global over supply. Beside these causes, the inefficient wage determination model (collective bargaining) & closing down of tea estates in North East have resulted in large scale starvation deaths of tea workers in North eastern region. Therefore, the Government and tea plantation owners need to address the issues that continue to threaten the tea plantation worker community. This may help to dissolve all the prevailing issues of tea plantation workers which will end the silent epidemic of starvation deaths.

Novelty/Improvement: This study attempts to explore the wage pattern and related issues among Indian tea plantation labours. In tea plantation, a female dominant sector, the wage rates are lowest among other plantation sectors. This indicates the gender gap in wage in plantation sector needs to be addressed.

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