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Objective: This research explores the direction of impact transmissions among public health spending, maternal education, and under-5 mortality, of which the previous researches ignored, in Nigeria.

Method/Findings: The study utilizes yearly time series data covering the period between 1980 and 2018 and employs the Toda-Yamamoto non-Granger causality test approach as the principal tool of analysis. The study controls for instability emanating from the structural break in the model. Surprisingly, the study finds both public health spending and maternal education not to Granger cause under-5 mortality. However, the study established a unidirectional relationship running from under-5 mortality to public health spending and maternal education. This finding appears to align with Wagner's law of increasing state activities, such that an increase or decrease in the rate of under-5 mortality leads to an increase or decrease in the level of public health spending and not vice-versa. The study thus concluded that change in the rate of under-5 mortality could be used to model or predict the future growth in public health spending and maternal educational level, reverse not the case.

Application: Findings emanating from this study is applicable in terms of health funds budget and forecast, and national development policy design.


Public Health Spending, Maternal Education, Under-5 Mortality, Toda-Yamamoto.