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Jones, Rodney P.
- A New Type of Infectious Outbreak?
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PDF Views:109
Authors
Affiliations
1 Healthcare Analysis and Forecasting Camberley, England GU15 1RQ, GB
1 Healthcare Analysis and Forecasting Camberley, England GU15 1RQ, GB
Source
SMU Medical Journal, Vol 2, No 1 (2015), Pagination: 19-26Abstract
In the UK, hospital medical admissions have been rising for many years. Many explanations have been offered but none adequately explain why the increase appears to occur in bursts. However during these bursts both medical admissions and all-cause mortality appear to rise and fall in a synchronous manner.
This study looks at the trend in age-standardized mortality in Scotland for women between 1994 and 2013, and male and female mortality for diseases of the circulatory system in 2012 and 2013 versus 2011 in England and Wales.
A steady downward trend in the mortality rate is observed with higher than expected mortality in the years 1995, 1999, 2002/2003, 2007/2008 and 2012/2013. Similar findings have been reported in England, Wales and Northern Ireland. In England and Wales mortality due to circulatory system diseases showed age-dependent patterns similar to the saw tooth patterns observed in 'antigenic original sin', which suggests the different strains of the same agent are involved.
A new type of infectious outbreak appears to be implicated with a broad-based effect against all-cause mortality and increased admissions for a wide range of medical conditions.
Keywords
Emerging Infectious Outbreaks, All-Cause Mortality, Immune Impairment, Cytomegalovirus, Medical Admissions, Gender.Full Text
- Deaths in English Lower Super Output Areas (LSOA) Show Patterns of very Large Shifts Indicative of a Novel Recurring Infectious Event
Abstract Views :171 |
PDF Views:87
Authors
Affiliations
1 Healthcare Analysis and Forecasting, Honister Walk, Camberley, GB
1 Healthcare Analysis and Forecasting, Honister Walk, Camberley, GB
Source
SMU Medical Journal, Vol 3, No 2 (2016), Pagination: 23-36Abstract
Deaths in the UK and other Western countries show 12 month periods of unexplained and consistently higher deaths. Excess cold/heat or winter infectious outbreaks cannot explain why deaths would remain high for 12 months, and then suddenly shift back to a 'normal'. This study looks at annual deaths (all-cause mortality) between 2001 and 2013 for males and females in over 32,000 English Lower Super Output Areas (LSOA). Some 40% of LSOA showed at least one instance of a year to year change exceeding +2.5 standard deviations equivalent difference (compared with only 0.7% due to chance). The magnitude of the maximum difference was highest in women. Particular years showed evidence of a widespread switch to higher deaths. In very small social networks the maximum step-like change in deaths exceeds a + 300% increase. An event of alarming magnitude is showing a recurring time series similar to a slow-moving 'novel' infectious outbreak.Keywords
Emerging Infectious Outbreaks, All-Cause Mortality, Immune Impairment, Cytomegalovirus, Medical Admissions, Gender.Full Text
- Year-To-Year Variation of Deaths in English Small Areas, and the Interaction between a Presumed Infectious Agent and Influenza in 2015
Abstract Views :527 |
PDF Views:143
Authors
Affiliations
1 Healthcare Analysis and Forecasting, Worcester, England, GB
1 Healthcare Analysis and Forecasting, Worcester, England, GB
Source
SMU Medical Journal, Vol 4, No 2 (2017), Pagination: 37-69Abstract
Deaths in England and Wales in 2015 showed the largest increase over the previous year seen in nearly 50 years. This was partly due to a seasonal influenza outbreak in late 2014 with deaths peaking in January 2015, however, deaths had already shown a step-like increase earlier in 2014 due to an outbreak of a presumed infectious agent. Outbreaks of the other agent between 2002 and 2014 were characterised in very small areas, and this was compared to behaviour in 2015. Both agents were shown to have the potential to spread across all parts of England and Wales. Latest research in immunology is employed to demonstrate that the unusually high deaths in 2015 could have arisen from sequential infection within an overarching framework of the infectious burden in humans. The interaction between the other agent and influenza illustrates how a chance series of events, which may include influenza vaccination, can generate unexpected large increases in mortality and morbidity.Keywords
Emering Infectious Diseases, All-Cause Mortality, Immune Impairment, Cytomegalovirus, Influenza Vaccination, Medical Admissions, Gender.Full Text
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