Determinants of Changes in Cropping Pattern in Kerala

Agriculture development experience of Kerala since the last few decades has been characterised by sharp decline in the area under food crops and the substantial expansion in the area under non-food crops. From the analysis of the growth trends of area of principal crops in Kerala, it is clearly established that the cropping pattern in the State made a significant change from food crops to nonfood crops and recently towards rubber. This change in cropping pattern is mainly due to farmers’ decisions. There must be certain determinants that motivated the farmers to make such a shift in the cropping pattern. Area response models were used to analyse the determinants. Three crops – paddy, coconut and rubber, which covered 57 per cent of the total cropped area are considered for the analysis. Knowledge about the decision behaviour is crucial and the analysis revealed that non-price factors such as yield risk variables, rainfall, irrigated area, etc., are the significant determinants of farmers' behaviour and price played only a nominal role in the case of paddy indicating frequent shift to other crops like coconut and rubber; in the case of rubber, price is the dominant governing determinant. Farmers’ decision behaviour is more sensitive in the case of rubber.