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Risk assessment of wind droughts over India


Affiliations
1 Divecha Centre for Climate Change, Indian Institute of Science, Bengaluru 560 012, India
2 Blackett Laboratory, Department of Physics, Imperial College, London SW7 2AZ, United Kingdom; Department of Physics and Grantham Institute – Climate Change and Environment, Imperial College, Exhibition Rd, South Kensington, London SW7 2BU,, United Kingdom
3 Blackett Laboratory, Department of Physics, Imperial College, London SW7 2AZ, United Kingdom; Department of Physics and Grantham Institute – Climate Change and Environment, Imperial College, Exhibition Rd, South Kensington, London SW7 2BU, United Kingdom
4 Divecha Centre for Climate Change and Centre for Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Indian Institute of Science, Bengaluru 560 012, India
 

Wind power growth makes it essential to simulate weather variability and its impacts on the electricity grid. Low-probability, high-impact weather events such as a wind drought are important but difficult to identify based on limited historical datasets. A stochastic weather generator, Imperial College Weather Generator (IMAGE), is employed to identify extreme events through long-period simulations. IMAGE captures mean, spatial correlation and seasonality in wind speed and estimates return periods of extreme wind events over India. Simulations show that when Rajasthan experiences wind drought, southern India continues to have wind, and vice versa. Regional grid-scale wind droughts could be avoided if grids are strongly interconnected across the country.

Keywords

Decarbonization, grid interconnections, risk assessment, stochastic weather generators, wind drought.
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  • Risk assessment of wind droughts over India

Abstract Views: 196  |  PDF Views: 91

Authors

A. Gangopadhyay
Divecha Centre for Climate Change, Indian Institute of Science, Bengaluru 560 012, India
N. J. Sparks
Blackett Laboratory, Department of Physics, Imperial College, London SW7 2AZ, United Kingdom; Department of Physics and Grantham Institute – Climate Change and Environment, Imperial College, Exhibition Rd, South Kensington, London SW7 2BU,, United Kingdom
R. Toumi
Blackett Laboratory, Department of Physics, Imperial College, London SW7 2AZ, United Kingdom; Department of Physics and Grantham Institute – Climate Change and Environment, Imperial College, Exhibition Rd, South Kensington, London SW7 2BU, United Kingdom
A. K. Seshadri
Divecha Centre for Climate Change and Centre for Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Indian Institute of Science, Bengaluru 560 012, India

Abstract


Wind power growth makes it essential to simulate weather variability and its impacts on the electricity grid. Low-probability, high-impact weather events such as a wind drought are important but difficult to identify based on limited historical datasets. A stochastic weather generator, Imperial College Weather Generator (IMAGE), is employed to identify extreme events through long-period simulations. IMAGE captures mean, spatial correlation and seasonality in wind speed and estimates return periods of extreme wind events over India. Simulations show that when Rajasthan experiences wind drought, southern India continues to have wind, and vice versa. Regional grid-scale wind droughts could be avoided if grids are strongly interconnected across the country.

Keywords


Decarbonization, grid interconnections, risk assessment, stochastic weather generators, wind drought.

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.18520/cs%2Fv122%2Fi10%2F1145-1153