Modelling of Declining Groundwater Depth in Kurukshetra District, Haryana, India

Changing climate of a region coupled with spatiotemporal variability of rainfall has a significant effect on groundwater recharge. An effort has been made in this study to analyse the pre- and post-monsoon average groundwater depths of different blocks in Kurukshetra district, Haryana, India. The stochastic analysis of groundwater depth was carried out using auto regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. Best-fitted models ARIMA (2, 1, 1) and ARIMA (0, 1, 2) were used for prediction of pre- and post-monsoon groundwater depth fluctuations up to the year 2020. Results indicate that by the year 2020, average groundwater depth in the pre- and post-monsoon seasons in the district is expected to decline by 5.63 and 5.72 m respectively, over the base year 2010. Results of this study will be helpful in evolving strategies for groundwater development and management.