Indian Journal of Economics and Development

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Background: ARIMA models were carried out to explain the fluctuations in production and productivity for wheat crop in Ahmedabad. Data from the year 1960-61 to 2010-11 were used for model fitting and forecasting ten years ahead from the year 2010-11.

Method: The ARIMA models with different p,d and q were judged based on autocorrelation function and partial auto correlation function at various lags and different ARIMA models were fitted.

Result: Among different fitted ARIMA models, ARIMA (0,1,1) family model was found suitable to forecast the pattern of wheat production and productivity trend of Ahmedabad region of Gujarat State.

Application: Forecasted values showed an increasing pattern in production and productivity of wheat in Ahmedabad region and predicted values for production and productivity of wheat in the year 2020-21 are3113.14 thousand tons and 1757.41 kg/ha respectively.


Keywords

Production, Productivity, Wheat, Ahmedabad, ARIMA.
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