Indian Journal of Economics and Development

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Forecasting of Wheat Production and Productivity of Ahmedabad Region of Gujarat State by Using ARIMA Models


Affiliations
1 B. A. College of Agriculture, Anand Agricultural University, Anand, 388110, Gujarat, India
2 Information Technology, Anand Agricultural University, Anand, 388110, Gujarat, India
3 Department of Agricultural Statistics, Anand Agricultural University, Anand, 388110, Gujarat, India
 

Background: ARIMA models were carried out to explain the fluctuations in production and productivity for wheat crop in Ahmedabad. Data from the year 1960-61 to 2010-11 were used for model fitting and forecasting ten years ahead from the year 2010-11.

Method: The ARIMA models with different p,d and q were judged based on autocorrelation function and partial auto correlation function at various lags and different ARIMA models were fitted.

Result: Among different fitted ARIMA models, ARIMA (0,1,1) family model was found suitable to forecast the pattern of wheat production and productivity trend of Ahmedabad region of Gujarat State.

Application: Forecasted values showed an increasing pattern in production and productivity of wheat in Ahmedabad region and predicted values for production and productivity of wheat in the year 2020-21 are3113.14 thousand tons and 1757.41 kg/ha respectively.


Keywords

Production, Productivity, Wheat, Ahmedabad, ARIMA.
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  • Forecasting of Wheat Production and Productivity of Ahmedabad Region of Gujarat State by Using ARIMA Models

Abstract Views: 271  |  PDF Views: 183

Authors

L. Netajit Singh
B. A. College of Agriculture, Anand Agricultural University, Anand, 388110, Gujarat, India
V. B. Darji
Information Technology, Anand Agricultural University, Anand, 388110, Gujarat, India
D. J. Parmar
Department of Agricultural Statistics, Anand Agricultural University, Anand, 388110, Gujarat, India

Abstract


Background: ARIMA models were carried out to explain the fluctuations in production and productivity for wheat crop in Ahmedabad. Data from the year 1960-61 to 2010-11 were used for model fitting and forecasting ten years ahead from the year 2010-11.

Method: The ARIMA models with different p,d and q were judged based on autocorrelation function and partial auto correlation function at various lags and different ARIMA models were fitted.

Result: Among different fitted ARIMA models, ARIMA (0,1,1) family model was found suitable to forecast the pattern of wheat production and productivity trend of Ahmedabad region of Gujarat State.

Application: Forecasted values showed an increasing pattern in production and productivity of wheat in Ahmedabad region and predicted values for production and productivity of wheat in the year 2020-21 are3113.14 thousand tons and 1757.41 kg/ha respectively.


Keywords


Production, Productivity, Wheat, Ahmedabad, ARIMA.