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Dynamic Modelling of Dengue Epidemics in Function of Available Enthalpy and Rainfall


Affiliations
1 Instituto de Geociencias, IGEO-CCMN-UFRJ, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
2 Departmento de Estatistica, CCET-UFRN, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, Natal, Brazil
3 Instituto de Astronomia, Geofisica e Ciencias Atmosfericas, IAG-USP, Universidade de Sao Paulo, SP, Brazil
 

In this work, we present results of an investigation of environmental precursors of infectious epidemic of dengue fever in the Metropolitan Area of Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil, obtained by a numerical model with representation of infection and reinfection of the population. The period considered extend between 2000 and 2011, in which it was possible to pair meteorological data and the reporting of dengue patients worsening. These data should also be considered in the numerical model, by assimilation, to obtain simulations of Dengue epidemics. The model contains compartments for the human population, for the vector Aedes aegypti and four virus serotypes. The results provide consistent evidence that worsening infection and disease outbreaks are due to the occurrence of environmental precursors, as the dynamics of the accumulation of water in the breeding and energy availability in the form of metabolic activation enthalpy during pre-epidemic periods.

Keywords

Modelling Dengue Epidemics, Environmental Enthalpy, Environmental Precursors of Dengue Epidemics.
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  • Dynamic Modelling of Dengue Epidemics in Function of Available Enthalpy and Rainfall

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Authors

Hugo Abi Karam
Instituto de Geociencias, IGEO-CCMN-UFRJ, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Julio Cesar Barreto da Silva
Departmento de Estatistica, CCET-UFRN, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, Natal, Brazil
Augusto Jose Pereira Filho
Instituto de Astronomia, Geofisica e Ciencias Atmosfericas, IAG-USP, Universidade de Sao Paulo, SP, Brazil
Jose Luis Flores Rojas
Instituto de Astronomia, Geofisica e Ciencias Atmosfericas, IAG-USP, Universidade de Sao Paulo, SP, Brazil

Abstract


In this work, we present results of an investigation of environmental precursors of infectious epidemic of dengue fever in the Metropolitan Area of Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil, obtained by a numerical model with representation of infection and reinfection of the population. The period considered extend between 2000 and 2011, in which it was possible to pair meteorological data and the reporting of dengue patients worsening. These data should also be considered in the numerical model, by assimilation, to obtain simulations of Dengue epidemics. The model contains compartments for the human population, for the vector Aedes aegypti and four virus serotypes. The results provide consistent evidence that worsening infection and disease outbreaks are due to the occurrence of environmental precursors, as the dynamics of the accumulation of water in the breeding and energy availability in the form of metabolic activation enthalpy during pre-epidemic periods.

Keywords


Modelling Dengue Epidemics, Environmental Enthalpy, Environmental Precursors of Dengue Epidemics.